A new report from S&P Global Market Intelligence Kagan indicates a significant cooling in the gaming hardware market. The firm forecasts that video game console shipments from Microsoft, Nintendo, and Sony will fall by 19.5 percent in 2026, totaling 33.9 million units.

Quick Facts

  • 2026 Forecast: 33.9 million total console shipments.
  • Nintendo Switch 2: Projected 17.1 million units sold in 2026.
  • PlayStation 5: Projected 13.2 million units sold in 2026.
  • Xbox Series X|S: Projected 2.5 million units sold in 2026.

Analysts point to a compounding set of issues for the current market: hardware that is increasingly expensive for the median consumer, combined with a software slate that remains thin outside of a few tentpole releases. Furthermore, the current macroeconomic environment has prevented any meaningful price relief for consumers.

The Long-Term Outlook and Next-Gen Hardware

The report projects that the market will face further decline in 2027, with shipments dropping to 27.1 million units. However, recovery is expected by 2028, with sales reaching 37.4 million units by 2030. This recovery is contingent on the component crisis easing, which would allow manufacturers to bring next-generation hardware to market at price points between $600 and $800.

Regarding the PlayStation 6, the firm’s model assumes a 2028 launch, aiming for 4 million units in its debut year and scaling to 17.2 million by 2030. Analysts expressed concern regarding the impact of Grand Theft Auto VI on hardware sales, noting that by the time the game launches, the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S will be six years old and remain at elevated price points.

Xbox Series X|S and 'Project Helix'

The outlook for Microsoft’s current hardware is stark, with the report predicting a rapid wind-down toward zero shipments for the Xbox Series X|S after 2026. Analysts cite an uneven first-party software library, a subscription-focused strategy that failed to move hardware, and pricing that currently places the Xbox Series X at a $100 premium over the standard PlayStation 5.

Looking ahead, Microsoft’s next-generation initiative, dubbed "Project Helix," is expected to support both Xbox and PC titles, which may result in a higher price point. The firm projects sales of approximately two million units in the launch year, growing to 7.3 million by 2030. However, analysts noted that the definition of a console is blurring, stating that a fully open PC platform with Xbox branding may not resemble a traditional console and could fall outside of standard industry tracking models.